As of April 2025, President Trump’s tariffs continue to disrupt the ammunition market, with major retailers like Walmart and Target now warning of impending empty shelves and sustained price increases. These developments compound earlier concerns about supply chain fragility and foreign manufacturer exits, creating unprecedented challenges for shooters, hunters, and firearms enthusiasts.
AR-15 Ammunition: Accelerating Supply Pressures
The 5.56mm/.223 Remington market faces new pressures from the recent sale of AMMO Inc.’s manufacturing assets to Olin Winchester, consolidating domestic production capacity. This reduction in competition could amplify price hikes as remaining U.S. manufacturers face fewer incentives to undercut tariffs on imported alternatives.
Retail Sector Warnings
Major national retailers have begun alerting consumers to prepare for sporadic ammunition shortages. Walmart and Target specifically cited challenges maintaining inventory levels for popular calibers like 9mm and 5.56mm, attributing these issues to delayed shipments and reduced import volumes.
Legislative Responses
Congressional efforts to address supply chain vulnerabilities, such as the Ammunition Supply Chain Act included in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, aim to strengthen domestic production long-term. However, these measures are unlikely to provide immediate relief, as mandated reports on raw material sourcing and public-private partnerships will take months to materialize.
Updated Stockpiling Considerations
With retail giants signaling broader market instability, the rationale for strategic ammunition stockpiling has intensified.
Consumers should prioritize:
-
Imported calibers (e.g., Serbian 7.62x39mm, Czech 9mm) facing 20–37% tariffs
-
Domestic hunting rounds (.308 Winchester, .30-06) vulnerable to production consolidation.
-
High-volume training ammunition (5.56mm, 9mm FMJ) where retail shortages are most acute.
The ammunition market’s trajectory now hinges on whether tariff policies persist through 2025. While legislative and industrial adaptations may eventually stabilize supplies, current conditions favor proactive purchasing to mitigate both price spikes and scarcity risks.
